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Re:food for thought or total nonsense? (1 viewing)
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TOPIC: Re:food for thought or total nonsense?
#507
javier marti (User)
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food for thought of total nonsense? 2008/02/01 19:42  
Michael, you know I have strong opinions and speak my mind clearly, so I bring this here to debate whether I am right, half right, or totally wrong. Since you know much more about parking than me, if I am wrong I'll learn something new. If I am half right, we spice up this forum a little bit. Feel free to post this anywhere else.
Let me know what you think...




The text below was posted somewhere else, in response to this article, first appeared in the NY Times:
http://biz.yahoo.com/nytimes/080201/1194742716777.html?.v=1



........warning: this post may hurt some traditional domainer's sensibilities. Read at your own risk.................................

>> for 15 appealingly generic names, including 7th.com, chaptereleven.com, microfinancing.com and computersystems.com.

Chaptereleven maybe...but 7th.com? Does it mean anythying I don't know about? You guys in the States, does 7th mean anything? What's the logic there? I am not saying it is good or bad. Please enlighten me.

>>“These names will pay for themselves within two years,”

ehm...if he is thinking on type-in traffic only, I hope he didn't pay a lot for them. Google just missed earnings, and one of the reasons I dare to say is because advertisers are already working on alternative ways to promote as the words they want in adwords get way out of their comfort bidding zone.

>>“The world is only now beginning to discover how important it is to have these assets.”
It is about time!

>>For the first time, people outside the traditionally insular and sometimes underground world of domainers, as they call themselves, might agree with him.

Coming from marketing, and having seen this from the outside, I see that domainers need a change of image now. The term "domainers" has bad connotations. I am looking for an alternative term to use in the book. Let me know if you come up with anything. "Domain name traders" sounds much more respectable, but it is a bit too long. I wouldn't like to be called a domainer, ever...
The media has succeeded making that word associated in the public's mind with cybersquatting.

I propose a public ban of the word domainers starting from this forum outwards! Doesn't it sound better content developers, mobile content producers...don't know...besides, domainers are so "90s"!

>>appears to be gaining a broader acceptance that veteran domainers are not accustomed to and may not be totally comfortable with.

This guy picked up the vibe of fear going on under the shiny lights and the smiles in Domainfest. Don't believe me...but I think that traditional domainers are scared and confused right now.
It is ironic that when they start to get what they always long for -public exposure- they're afraid. Reason: lack of professionalism. If you have done your homework, you are not afraid of the future. An example: in this forum we do our homework every day. Think of the quality of the posts, and think what you knew when we started and what we know now.

I am sorry, but I see a lot of traditional domainers and traditional business models in domaining obsolete and full of hot air. Have they made millions of dollars, yes, a few people, for some very specific reasons. Has the "industry" the underlying strong business

I am not saying there is not smart people there, nor that they are dishonest. I am just saying that the ratio qualified people/clueless people in this space is far too imbalanced towards you-know-what-group-of-people

I think that part of the "fear" of traditional domainers is that with the media attention also come the tough business questions, starting with the basics like "do you have a business plan?" "what is your budget/plan for the next two years running this operation if X or Y happens?" "who is your competition?". When these questions are asked, the average domainer looks at the would-be-investor with clueless eyes, and in that moment the domainer knows that it is the beginning of the end for him and his business.
In the other guys mind however, the cluelessness of the domainer is only good news, because now that he, as an investor, has decided to pay attention to this space, he knows that it cannot be too difficult to dominate it when X, Y, or Z domainer have made millions of dollars in the last few years with a crappy logo, a few thousand parked pages and an inexistent business plan. Let alone a SWOT or contingency planning...


>> Mr. Buck and other domainers profit when inexperienced Internet users type those names into their Web browsers, and once on the site click on related advertisements.

Not for too long anymore. Google is actively against it. Users get more sophisticated. Cadna hates it and is building momentum. Social bookmarking is taking an increasing share in people's choices on what websites to visit, and the recent media exposure about domain tasting doesn't help either...
If your business is based on type-in today, you have a very serious problem.


>>In the longer term, they hope to resell their domain names for large profits to companies that want to build real businesses with those Web addresses.

Ehm...good luck with that. Corporations are not full of suckers... They won't buy substandard names for millions of dollars. They'll find ways around it. Call it reverse hijacking, government lobbying, or plain old -if all else fails- going with some silly name. Domainer's golden day will not ever come. This is one of the things that it is not politically correct to say in forums. But I am sorry, that's how I see reality. Now, we, guys, have to be prepared against this developing useful websites and being aware of the changes in this space. Fail to do this and you may end up like the many dinosaurs that are about to fall, never to be heard of again.

>> Domainers have generally had a negative reputation.

That's unfortunate because there is also great people in this field.

>> As a result, over the last few months, private equity and venture capital firms have poured money into the largest companies in the field.

Bubble. We have seen it before. Gold, tulips, South Seas shares, .com boom...

>> “We think this is definitely a legitimate industry and a legitimate business,”

It is, if you take the time and work hard to provide value to users.


>> Investors are so confident in the growth of online advertising — and the ability of domainers to capitalize on that trend — that they plan to soon start selling shares of domain-name companies to the public

Online advertising will grow. No doubt about it. But will parking grow with it? I don't think so.
And when the parking business comes down, lots of these domainers, that are wasting precious time by not developing and learning about SEO, will flood the market with assets of deprecciating value.


>> even in today’s volatile market.

In times of crisis investment in new ventures collapses. This recession (+stagflation) will slow everything in the domain space down.


>> “This industry could probably be an oasis, in the grand scheme of things, relative to the rest of the economy,”

...provided that the "industry" matures and becomes a solid, long-term vehicle to multiply the dollars that go in by many more dollars coming out.


>> The domainers now have their own trade group in Washington — albeit with only one full-time employee. They also have specialized financiers who will lend money and accept domain names as collateral.

The next "Citigroup" mess in the making? They'd better choose their names (and extensions) properly and make sure they know what they are doing...


>> But like other veterans, Mr. Schilling does not appear to be completely enthusiastic about the business’s new direction. “These shows let everyone know how good it is, and now the sniff is out,” he said. “The wildcatting days are over. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t miss them.”

Could this be why Frank is not blogging anymore? Just asking...I am curious


>> The industry’s transition to respect and professionalism may not be entirely complete.

It may not indeed...


>> One strategy that has cast a stigma over the industry is called typo-squatting — registering domain names with variations and misspellings of major brand names, in the hopes that Web users will inadvertently stumble upon the sites. It has not gone away.

The media has put all domainers in the same bag. The damage is done, only a new PR campaign can save domainer's reputation now. I wasn't joking about the change of name for "domainers"


>> Robert Alfano, the company’s co-founder, says he spends much of his time talking to Wall Street banks about backing his business model.

Once the scorpion has crossed to the other shore, what does it need the frog for? Ok, I'll put it in other way, they are pointing the wolf to where the hens are. But will the little rabbit that is pointing get invited to the table or also get eaten by the wolf? (sorry, I am in parable mode! Maybe I read too many fairy tales)


>> As the business matures, some of the smaller players worry they might get trampled.
“Big changes are coming, and for the little guy it’s getting challenging,” he said. “The bigger companies can do things, and I can’t. We just have to work harder.”

Sad reality. The old 80/20 rule coming to the domain world. It is inevitable. We have to learn to adapt and thrive in niches too small for the giants to pay attention, or die, as I explained here
http://trendinews.com/?p=89
Javier Marti
Futurist, Consultant, Founder:
Trendirama.com, Trendinews.com, Trendirama.tv
  The administrator has disabled public write access.
#508
Whizzbang (Admin)
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Re:food for thought of total nonsense? 2008/02/07 04:09  
Javier,
I've just waded my way through this article....quite substantial really. Please see my thoughts embedded below.

javier marti wrote:
Michael, you know I have strong opinions and speak my mind clearly, so I bring this here to debate whether I am right, half right, or totally wrong. Since you know much more about parking than me, if I am wrong I'll learn something new. If I am half right, we spice up this forum a little bit. Feel free to post this anywhere else.
Let me know what you think...

>>You're very kind!




The text below was posted somewhere else, in response to this article, first appeared in the NY Times:
http://biz.yahoo.com/nytimes/080201/1194742716777.html?.v=1



........warning: this post may hurt some traditional domainer's sensibilities. Read at your own risk.................................

>> for 15 appealingly generic names, including 7th.com, chaptereleven.com, microfinancing.com and computersystems.com.

Chaptereleven maybe...but 7th.com? Does it mean anythying I don't know about? You guys in the States, does 7th mean anything? What's the logic there? I am not saying it is good or bad. Please enlighten me.
#Whizzbang - I agree with you....I'm not always sure why particular domains sell for what they go for. I just hope that there is a business model behind them.


>>“These names will pay for themselves within two years,”

ehm...if he is thinking on type-in traffic only, I hope he didn't pay a lot for them. Google just missed earnings, and one of the reasons I dare to say is because advertisers are already working on alternative ways to promote as the words they want in adwords get way out of their comfort bidding zone.

#Whizzbang - I'm not sure if advertisers are necessarily looking elsewhere. What I think is happening is that various market verticals are reaching a maximum bid value which results in a lack of growth potential for advertising spend other than from increasing the volume of traffic.

>>“The world is only now beginning to discover how important it is to have these assets.”
It is about time!

#Whizzbang - I agree!

>>For the first time, people outside the traditionally insular and sometimes underground world of domainers, as they call themselves, might agree with him.

Coming from marketing, and having seen this from the outside, I see that domainers need a change of image now. The term "domainers" has bad connotations. I am looking for an alternative term to use in the book. Let me know if you come up with anything. "Domain name traders" sounds much more respectable, but it is a bit too long. I wouldn't like to be called a domainer, ever...
The media has succeeded making that word associated in the public's mind with cybersquatting.

I propose a public ban of the word domainers starting from this forum outwards! Doesn't it sound better content developers, mobile content producers...don't know...besides, domainers are so "90s"!

#Whizzbang - I'll do my best on this point!

>>appears to be gaining a broader acceptance that veteran domainers are not accustomed to and may not be totally comfortable with.

This guy picked up the vibe of fear going on under the shiny lights and the smiles in Domainfest. Don't believe me...but I think that traditional domainers are scared and confused right now.
It is ironic that when they start to get what they always long for -public exposure- they're afraid. Reason: lack of professionalism. If you have done your homework, you are not afraid of the future. An example: in this forum we do our homework every day. Think of the quality of the posts, and think what you knew when we started and what we know now.

I am sorry, but I see a lot of traditional domainers and traditional business models in domaining obsolete and full of hot air. Have they made millions of dollars, yes, a few people, for some very specific reasons. Has the "industry" the underlying strong business

I am not saying there is not smart people there, nor that they are dishonest. I am just saying that the ratio qualified people/clueless people in this space is far too imbalanced towards you-know-what-group-of-people

#Whizzbang - I would agree with you on this point. I also believe that ALL domain name owners should sell down a portion of their portfolio and diversify their potential risk away from domains.

I think that part of the "fear" of traditional domainers is that with the media attention also come the tough business questions, starting with the basics like "do you have a business plan?" "what is your budget/plan for the next two years running this operation if X or Y happens?" "who is your competition?". When these questions are asked, the average domainer looks at the would-be-investor with clueless eyes, and in that moment the domainer knows that it is the beginning of the end for him and his business.
In the other guys mind however, the cluelessness of the domainer is only good news, because now that he, as an investor, has decided to pay attention to this space, he knows that it cannot be too difficult to dominate it when X, Y, or Z domainer have made millions of dollars in the last few years with a crappy logo, a few thousand parked pages and an inexistent business plan. Let alone a SWOT or contingency planning...

#Whizzbang - You're preaching to the converted here! I completely agree!


>> Mr. Buck and other domainers profit when inexperienced Internet users type those names into their Web browsers, and once on the site click on related advertisements.

Not for too long anymore. Google is actively against it. Users get more sophisticated. Cadna hates it and is building momentum. Social bookmarking is taking an increasing share in people's choices on what websites to visit, and the recent media exposure about domain tasting doesn't help either...
If your business is based on type-in today, you have a very serious problem.

#Whizzbang - I think that type-in traffic will be around for quite some time. I also believe that the payouts will go down.....


>>In the longer term, they hope to resell their domain names for large profits to companies that want to build real businesses with those Web addresses.

Ehm...good luck with that. Corporations are not full of suckers... They won't buy substandard names for millions of dollars. They'll find ways around it. Call it reverse hijacking, government lobbying, or plain old -if all else fails- going with some silly name. Domainer's golden day will not ever come. This is one of the things that it is not politically correct to say in forums. But I am sorry, that's how I see reality. Now, we, guys, have to be prepared against this developing useful websites and being aware of the changes in this space. Fail to do this and you may end up like the many dinosaurs that are about to fall, never to be heard of again.

#Whizzbang - What I'm concerned about is that the industry is maintaining artificially high prices for domains off the back of a very small market depth.....dangerous territory.

>> Domainers have generally had a negative reputation.

That's unfortunate because there is also great people in this field.
#Whizzbang - Agreed!

>> As a result, over the last few months, private equity and venture capital firms have poured money into the largest companies in the field.

Bubble. We have seen it before. Gold, tulips, South Seas shares, .com boom...

>> “We think this is definitely a legitimate industry and a legitimate business,”

It is, if you take the time and work hard to provide value to users.
#Whizzbang - My impression is that private equity isn't stupid either and quite often is pouring money into domains AND sustainable business models.

>> Investors are so confident in the growth of online advertising — and the ability of domainers to capitalize on that trend — that they plan to soon start selling shares of domain-name companies to the public

Online advertising will grow. No doubt about it. But will parking grow with it? I don't think so.
And when the parking business comes down, lots of these domainers, that are wasting precious time by not developing and learning about SEO, will flood the market with assets of deprecciating value.
#Whizzbang - Yes, that's happening but I'm not sure how sustainable it will be in the long-term.

>> even in today’s volatile market.

In times of crisis investment in new ventures collapses. This recession (+stagflation) will slow everything in the domain space down.
#Whizzbang - Agreed!


>> “This industry could probably be an oasis, in the grand scheme of things, relative to the rest of the economy,”

...provided that the "industry" matures and becomes a solid, long-term vehicle to multiply the dollars that go in by many more dollars coming out.
#Whizzbang - I'm not convinced that we will have an oasis.....


>> The domainers now have their own trade group in Washington — albeit with only one full-time employee. They also have specialized financiers who will lend money and accept domain names as collateral.

The next "Citigroup" mess in the making? They'd better choose their names (and extensions) properly and make sure they know what they are doing...
#Whizzbang - debt is a dangerous thing in an industry like this.


>> But like other veterans, Mr. Schilling does not appear to be completely enthusiastic about the business’s new direction. “These shows let everyone know how good it is, and now the sniff is out,” he said. “The wildcatting days are over. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t miss them.”

Could this be why Frank is not blogging anymore? Just asking...I am curious
#Whizzbang - I think that he just got burnt out with blogging. I prefer to put up an article every few days....he was putting up 10 articles per day. I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to blogging in a more measured manner.

>> The industry’s transition to respect and professionalism may not be entirely complete.

It may not indeed...
#Whizzbang - This is why we need standards ASAP!


>> One strategy that has cast a stigma over the industry is called typo-squatting — registering domain names with variations and misspellings of major brand names, in the hopes that Web users will inadvertently stumble upon the sites. It has not gone away.

The media has put all domainers in the same bag. The damage is done, only a new PR campaign can save domainer's reputation now. I wasn't joking about the change of name for "domainers"
#Whizzbang - Agreed!


>> Robert Alfano, the company’s co-founder, says he spends much of his time talking to Wall Street banks about backing his business model.

Once the scorpion has crossed to the other shore, what does it need the frog for? Ok, I'll put it in other way, they are pointing the wolf to where the hens are. But will the little rabbit that is pointing get invited to the table or also get eaten by the wolf? (sorry, I am in parable mode! Maybe I read too many fairy tales)


>> As the business matures, some of the smaller players worry they might get trampled.
“Big changes are coming, and for the little guy it’s getting challenging,” he said. “The bigger companies can do things, and I can’t. We just have to work harder.”

Sad reality. The old 80/20 rule coming to the domain world. It is inevitable. We have to learn to adapt and thrive in niches too small for the giants to pay attention, or die, as I explained here
http://trendinews.com/?p=89

#Whizzbang - FANTASTIC COMMENTS! I really enjoyed reading this.
-----------------------
Whizzbang - Michael Gilmour
http://www.ParkLogic.com, http://www.simcast.com
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#540
JulieW8 (User)
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Re:food for thought or total nonsense? 2008/02/24 00:53  
Wow - well worth the read and I'm glad I took the time. I would send you a PM or e-mail but I get an error.

This echoes some of my thoughts coming back from TRAFFIC West 08 so I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking this. Unfortunately, not a lot of time to actually sit and talk with people at that conference - I think a lot of the conversation goes on afterwards by PM, e-mail and on the forums.

New name? Virtual property investment, in my book. You invest in the address and either put up a billboard or develop. Sure sounds like property investment to me.
Sometimes when you pay more, all you get is more expensive incompetence.
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#543
javier marti (User)
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Re:food for thought or total nonsense? 2008/02/24 13:50  
"Virtual property investment" sounds good Julie, although the parallels between real estate and domains are not as clear or strong as domainers like to believe...
Javier Marti
Futurist, Consultant, Founder:
Trendirama.com, Trendinews.com, Trendirama.tv
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#547
Whizzbang (Admin)
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Re:food for thought or total nonsense? 2008/02/24 14:49  
The nice aspect of domains is that unlike rental property you don't risk having someone put a hole in the wall.
-----------------------
Whizzbang - Michael Gilmour
http://www.ParkLogic.com, http://www.simcast.com
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#550
JulieW8 (User)
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Re:food for thought or total nonsense? 2008/02/24 21:01  
javier marti wrote:
"Virtual property investment" sounds good Julie, although the parallels between real estate and domains are not as clear or strong as domainers like to believe...

Could you elaborate please?
Sometimes when you pay more, all you get is more expensive incompetence.
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#558
javier marti (User)
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Re:food for thought or total nonsense? 2008/02/27 03:42  
I am writing a book Julie. I am ellaborating in the book. Just a couple of months more and will be out. (and free!) Send me an email to info()trendirama.com and I'll send you a copy.
.............

It seems that the market agrees with me in that advertisers are already looking for cheaper, more efficient ways to reach consumers, skipping Google as the advertising broker:
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/2/2008/2/google_disaster__comscore_reports_awful_january

I think this is a growing trend as PPC costs to advertisers go through the roof in Google's system.

Now I predict that we'll see a a lot of blog talk regarding Google's Adsense model being almost a "scam", and highly inefficient. Now many people will get to the other side of the love-hate relationship with Google, and somehow they'll make them pay for what many webmasters understand as Google's past arrogance.

However, this will be an extreme reaction that doesn't reflect reality either. Google's advertising model is sound in the great scheme of things, although it needs serious tweaking to let new low-budget entrants (advertisers) into the system itself.

The risk of their business model is the all-for-free part, which is for me still hard to take in. It sounds really nice, but someone, somewhere, has to pick up the tab. If the main source of revenue for Google is advertising and this starts to show signs of weakness, the whole system may collapse (we are quite far from that though, and Google's coffers are still overflowing as we speak)

Let's not forget either that they have a great team of smart minds working there, although one thing is to ride the top of the wave and another to come from below the surge to the top again.

Somehow I have the intuition -not the proof- that the graduates and engineers Google usually recruits are not prepared or trained by nature for the bad times. (the explanation for my intuition here touches education, social upbringing of these recruits, type of recruits Google favours -semi introverted highly analytical people, etc...)
The skills needed to ride a recession have as much to do with the psychology of the crowds as with being able to do something technically efficient. Does Google have that type of people today, or rather the kind that gets hidden behind their computer screens when the going gets tough? And this is just the beginning...

Post edited by: javier marti, at: 2008/02/27 03:45
Javier Marti
Futurist, Consultant, Founder:
Trendirama.com, Trendinews.com, Trendirama.tv
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#563
JulieW8 (User)
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Re:food for thought or total nonsense? 2008/02/28 01:20  
Thanks, Javier. I'm looking forward to reading your book.
Sometimes when you pay more, all you get is more expensive incompetence.
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